February 28, 2022
Near-term Market Forecast: The market environment is unfavorable for appreciation of these stocks in the weeks ahead.
After the Ukraine invasion began, the market experienced a relief rally as uncertainty was lifted and the likely impacts on the global economy and markets could finally be ascertained by large investors. The market averages gapped much lower after the invasion started and then rallied back from there. The Nasdaq briefly entered bear market territory before the strong rebound. The S&P 500 has now experienced a more than 15% correction from top to bottom. The prior low on the small cap Russell 2000 barely held before the rebound started. Now the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both approaching the 20 EMA and perhaps the 50 day moving average where we are likely to see some resistance if not a strong reversal back lower. Meanwhile, the VIX volatility index soared over 30 and closed today just above that very lofty level which indicates the increased risk factors currently for the market. The 2/10 year yield curve continues to be in a downtrend and closed at just .39 today while the 3 month/10 year curve is now flattening quickly. Oil is finding some resistance at the top of its upward sloping channel and it will be interesting to see if it can break through that area and continue to go higher in the near-term. The Fed is in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday and those statements could impact the market along with earnings and the evolving situation in Ukraine and sanctions. The strategy is calling for holding the following 3 stocks until the next update:
This Weeks Stocks:
This week we have 1 new stock. So, to follow the system, you would sell SAH and use the proceeds to buy LPX. If you are just starting, you would buy equal dollar amounts of all 3 stocks when the market re-opens in your risk-capital account dedicated to this system. Be sure to view the complete introductory video before getting started.
Stock #1 – LPX
Optional Protective Stop-loss Point: $56.89 (Be aware that a tighter stop-loss will likely severely reduce performance over the long-term based on back-testing for this strategy. See upgrade and performance video for further information and insight on optional stop-loss orders.)
Stock #2 – AMD
Optional Protective Stop-loss Point: $92.39
Stock #3 – RIO
Optional Protective Stop-loss Point: $64.39
A nice gap higher last Wednesday morning was followed up with another about 4% move higher for the strategy. Recouping losses over the prior couple weeks and easily beating the S&P 500 over the past week which was up less than 2% since the evening of the last update. Typically the strategy draws down about 1.5 to 2.5 times the overall market as can be seen on the long-term performance chart with positive anomalies over the past couple years or so prior to this latest market correction.
Brian C Neall
Founder – Investtobefree.com
email: info@investtobefree.com