May 2, 2022
Near-term Market Forecast: The market environment is neither favorable or unfavorable for appreciation of these stocks in the weeks ahead.
The first four months of 2022 have been the worst start for the market since 1939. And we just witnessed the worst month for the Nasdaq since October 2008. Just when the market starts to gain traction this year, the Fed discloses more of what they have planned for later this year – upping the ante for larger rate hikes and/or balance sheet contraction to combat inflation. Meanwhile, strong lockdown measures are putting China into recession as Europe has been very weak as well. Fortunately, lockdowns will someday end and inflation is likely to moderate sometime later this year. In the meantime, the market is pricing in a lot of Fed tightening and the extent to which the bond market has already done the Feds job. The ten year treasury yield continues to make new 52-week highs and broke above 3% briefly today. Lets see if the 2018 highs near 3.25% offer resistance and demand comes in at much higher yields than what we have seen over the past couple years from bonds. Fortunately, we are seeing fairly orderly trading patterns during the day so far as the strategy starts to outperform the overall market. We would like to see the VIX down closer to 20 but its now testing the 52-week highs around 39 ahead of the big Fed rate hike on Wednesday and key press conference afterwards. Some are already betting on a relief rally starting as we saw after the first rate hike in March. The poor AMZN report really hit earnings growth expectations for the quarter which are now expected to be up in the mid single digits for Q1. Meanwhile, S&P 500 earnings estimates for the year continue to go up but at a slower pace than we have seen previously. We continue to expect volatility as we continue through the heart of earnings season. The strategy is calling for holding the following 3 stocks until the next update:
This Weeks Stocks:
This week we have 1 new stock. So, to follow the system, you would sell BANC and use the proceeds to purchase DOW. If you are just starting, you would buy equal dollar amounts of all 3 stocks when the market re-opens in your risk-capital account dedicated to this system. Be sure to view the complete introductory video before getting started.
Stock #1 – DOW
Optional Protective Stop-loss Point: $53.49 (Be aware that a tighter stop-loss will likely severely reduce performance over the long-term based on back-testing for this strategy. See upgrade and performance video for further information and insight on optional stop-loss orders.)
Stock #2 – OXY
Optional Protective Stop-loss Point: $46.93
Stock #3 – COST
Optional Protective Stop-loss Point: $464.49
A nice rebound in OXY more than offset losses in COST in a treacherous week for the market. BANC was down a little over 1%. Overall, the strategy was up slightly while the S&P 500 lost about 3% since last Monday evening. Its still the worst start of a new year since launching the service 10 years ago with the worst start for the overall market averages since 1939. Bonds continue their losses as well in a rough year to say the least.
Brian C Neall
Founder – Investtobefree.com
email: info@investtobefree.com